FISHERY PRODUCTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA
This study examines the impact of fishery production on Nigeria’s economic growth from 1990 to 2024, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to analyze the long-run and short-run relationships between real GDP growth rate, total fishery production (FP), and captured fishery production (CFP). The findings reveal a significant divergence in the effects of fishery subsectors: while total fishery production exhibits a statistically significant negative long-run impact on economic growth, captured fishery production demonstrates a positive and significant long-run relationship. These results suggest that aggregate fishery expansion, likely driven by unsustainable capture practices and diminishing returns, may hinder macroeconomic performance, whereas the captured fishery subsector acts as a growth driver, potentially due to higher value-addition and stronger economic linkages. The study confirms a stable cointegrating relationship and a rapid short-run adjustment mechanism, with robust diagnostic tests validating the model. The research concludes that undifferentiated policies targeting total fishery output are counterproductive and recommends sub-sector-specific strategies that promote sustainable captured fishery development while implementing stringent conservation measures for wild stocks to enhance the sector’s contribution to Nigeria’s economic development.
Keywords: Fishery production; Economic growth; Captured fisheries; Sustainable aquaculture; Resource curse
