AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA
This study examined the impact of Aquaculture Production on economic growth in Nigeria from 1990 to 2024. The specific objectives were to identify the relationships between aquaculture production, captured fisheries production, total fisheries production, fish farming credit, government aquaculture infrastructural investment, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. The study adopted an ex-post facto research design, utilizing annual time-series data sourced from the World Bank Development Indicators, FAO Fishery Statistics, Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, and FMARD annual reports. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach was employed to estimate both short-run and long-run relationships among the variables. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test revealed mixed integration orders—GDP growth rate was stationary at level, while all fishery variables were stationary after first differencing—validating the ARDL approach. The bounds test confirmed a stable long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The error correction term indicated rapid annual adjustment to long-run equilibrium. Long-run findings revealed that aquaculture production had a significant positive impact on economic growth; captured fisheries production showed a significant negative relationship; total fisheries production also exhibited a significant negative effect, demonstrating aggregation bias; fish farming credit had a significant positive impact; and government aquaculture infrastructural investment displayed a significant positive effect. Diagnostic tests confirmed the absence of serial correlation and heteroskedasticity. The study concludes that aquaculture development, supported by credit access and public infrastructure investment, serves as a positive driver of Nigeria’s economic growth, whereas capture fisheries exerts a drag due to overexploitation and diminishing returns. Recommendations include prioritizing aquaculture intensification, enforcing conservation quotas for wild stocks, mandating commercial banks to allocate minimum percentages of agricultural credit to fish farming at single-digit interest rates, and increasing budgetary allocation for aquaculture infrastructure.
Keywords: Aquaculture production, captured fisheries, economic growth, fish farming credit, government infrastructural investment, total fisheries production
