Analysis on the Impact of the COVID-19 on China’s Tourism Industry and Development Strategy Using TREND and SWOT-PEST Model

After the outbreak of the COVID-19 in 2020, it will have a great impact on the booming tourism industry and become a global concern. This paper selects the data of domestic tourism income from 2014 to 2019, and assumes that under the condition of no epidemic situation, the TREND model is used to estimate the predicted value of domestic tourism income from 2020 to 2023, and evaluate the status and extent of the impact value by comparing the actual value. Meanwhile, the SWOT-PEST composite model is used to analyze the relevant causes and impact degree, build a SWOT-PEST matrix for the development of domestic tourism, and analyze the Strengths (S), Weaknesses (W), Opportunities (O) and Threats (T) of domestic tourism development in the context of the COVID-19 epidemic from the aspects of Politics (P), Economy (E), Society (S) and Technology (T). Then propose four strategies, namely Strength-Opportunity(SO), Weakness-Opportunity (WO), Strength-Threat (ST) and Weakness- Threat (WT), for making contributions to the recovery and development of tourism in the post epidemic era.

KEYWORDS: COVID-19; Tourism; TREND model; SWOT-PEST model, Strategy analysis