Growth rate, instability and trend analysis of Potato industry in Lesotho.
Potato has been grown in Lesotho by farmers for home consumption and surplus sold.
Since potatoes were produced, no study has been undertaken to determine progression of potato industry. Therefore, objectives of the study were to: (1) estimate growth rate and instability in potato production, productivity and area grown, (2) determine trends in potato production, export and import volumes, value and price. Time series data were collected from Index box and Koenema. Data were captured using Microsoft excel, after which growth rate, instability and trend analysis were performed. Statistical package for social sciences was employed to draw linear graphs for afore-mentioned parameters. Results revealed compounded growth rate of 34.94% in potato production from 2007 to 2023, while annual growth rate fluctuated around mean of 116,310 kg with variance of 196.95. Mean yield of potato in a hectare from 2007 to 2016 was 17,000 kg with variance of 0.37. Over 16 years of potato production, there was infinitesimal difference among the years in yield. Compound growth rate in yield was 0.57%. Mean area of potato over study period was 68.1ha with variance of 0.40. Compound growth rate in area was 26.41%, while annual growth rate was erratic above the mean, though few were in negative territory. Mean export volume of potatoes over 16 years was 1,490 kg with variance of 0.94%. Annual growth rate was erratic, running above and below the mean in unpredictable manner. Compound growth rate was 746.31%. Mean of export value was US$4,580 with variance of 3.79%. Annual growth rates of export values were erratic, mostly in the positive territory. Compound growth rate revealed 102.83%.
Differences among export values were infinitesimally with an exception in 2009, 2012 and 2017. Annual growth rate of export values was erratic fluctuating with highest being 447.06% in 2017 and lowest of -10% in 2008. Compound growth rate revealed 102.83%. The study revealed stagnant potato industry with little growth.
Keywords-: Potato, trend analysis, growth rate, import, export, Lesotho.
