The Two Closing Windows of Opportunity: The Pivotal Debate and the Road to War
On June 27, 2024, a historical and pivotal presidential debate took place between American President Joseph Biden Jr. and Former President Donald Trump. What made this debate pivotal is a somewhat strange reason: It led to Biden’s withdrawal and the nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris. The repercussions of this withdrawal did not only affect American internal politics but also world politics and conflicts, namely the clash in the Middle East that we will discuss, in addition to other wars like the Russian-Ukrainian one. Hence, it is essential to ask questions regarding the real causes behind the events leading to war in the Middle East, as well as the possible scenarios and factors that may lead to an escalation—reaching large-scale wars in this region. Therefore, the objective of this work is to reveal the roots of the actual conflict between Israel and Iran and its proxies to highlight the possible outcomes.
Materials and Methods: This work employs a qualitative methodological approach, utilizing secondary data analysis and following deductive reasoning. Thus, it analyzes the events, showing the bigger picture before delving into the causes and possible scenarios, hence its importance in showcasing the strategic motives and implications.
As for the findings, they demonstrate how the window of opportunity is closing for both Israel and Iran before the American presidential elections. This is due to multiple reasons, such as the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and KSA, which has pushed Iran to attack Israel directly and through its proxies. As for Tel Aviv, it gained the initiative after suffering from Operation Al Aqsa Flood and has been conducting an aggressive war on Iranian proxies. The future of this war, especially against Hezbollah, may take different courses of action, highlighted in this work, each having certain outcomes and dangers.
Keywords: Debate; Israel; Iran; Hezbollah; Houthi; Hamas; Al Aqsa Flood.
