PALM OIL EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF NIGERIA (1980 – 2024)
This study evaluated the nexus between palm oil export and economic growth of Nigeria from 1990-2024. The independent variables are palm oil export value, export price, and exchange rate, while gross domestic product was the dependent vaqriable. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was adopted to explain short-run and long-run influences through time series data obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and World Bank. Three hypotheses were set and tested at 5% confidence interval to investigate whether export value of palm oil, export price of palm oil and exchange rate has significant influences on the growth of Nigerian economy. Findings indicate that in the short-run, only export price of palm oil shows significant and positive influence on Nigeria economic growth. On the contrary, both the export value and exchange rate of palm oil did not exert significant short-run effects. In the long-run, the exchange rate and export value of palm oil show negative and significant impact on economic growth. The export price of palm oil remains positive but insignificant in the long-run. Thus, this research concluded that palm oil sector has strong capacity of fostering Nigerian economic development through the establishment of consistent economic policies, exchange rate stability and value chain integration and provided recommendations that maintain exchange rate equilibrium through sound monetary policy management, enhance value addition through effective palm oil processing and exporting, and enforce policy for agricultural export diversification to minimise crude oil reliance.
Key words: Economic growth, export price, Nigeria, palm oil export value
