Forest Governance and Insecurity Complications in the Northeast Geopolitical Zone: Implications for Nigerian External Relations, 2020 – 2025
This paper explores how forest-based insecurity has evolved in Northeast Nigeria between 2020 and 2025 and the implications for the country’s external relations. Forests such as Sambisa, Mandara, and Alagarno, once primarily ecological and livelihood spaces, have increasingly become arenas of alternative authority, where insurgents, armed bandit groups, and certain pastoralist militias exert control. Drawing on State Failure Theory and Regional Security Complex Theory, the study demonstrates that the rise of these non-state actors is rooted in the Nigerian state’s limited presence in these regions, creating governance vacuums that foster both local exploitation and broader transnational security threats. Forest-based governance operates through coercion, informal taxation, and territorial control, shaping local economies and social hierarchies while weakening formal state structures. The paper further examines how this insecurity spills across borders, fueling cross-border raids, refugee movements, arms trafficking, and tensions with neighboring countries such as Niger, Chad, and Cameroon. In response, the Nigerian government has pursued a combination of military action, regional cooperation through the Multinational Joint Task Force, diplomatic engagement to limit arms proliferation, and community-centered humanitarian interventions. Findings highlight that sustainable stabilization in the Northeast requires an integrated approach that balances security operations, development programs, and diplomatic strategies. Ultimately, the study underscores that internal insecurity in strategically sensitive regions is not only a domestic concern but a decisive factor shaping Nigeria’s diplomatic credibility, regional influence, and international partnerships.
Keywords: Northeast Nigeria, forest-based insecurity, non-state actors, forest governance, regional diplomacy.
