Epidemiological Overview and Predictive Modelling of Cholera Outbreak in Abia State, Nigeria, January 2021-June 2023
Background: Cholera remains a public health threat in Nigeria. In Abia State, southeast Nigeria, cholera outbreaks are common with limited data coverage. This study is a descriptive analysis of cholera outbreaks across various local government areas in the state between 2021 and 2023, to identify predictors of cholera incidence and mortality.
Methods: A retrospective analysis of line lists obtained from 12 of 17 LGAs was conducted. The attack and case fatality rates were calculated, and the outbreaks were described by time, place, age, and gender using specified statistics.
Results: 12 of 17 LGAs in Abia State experienced outbreaks between January 2021 and June 2023; in that timeframe, 354 cases and 13 deaths were recorded. Aba South and Umuahia North, the most industrial towns in the state experienced the highest incidences of the disease over the study period. The highest AR was recorded in Umuahia North (58.70 per 100,000). Inadequate sanitation infrastructure is a major facilitator of cholera outbreaks in Abia State.
Conclusion: This study identified the key epidemiological factors contributing to cholera outbreaks in Abia State, Nigeria, between 2021 and 2023. The results highlight the immediate necessity for enhanced public health measures, with a particular emphasis on the improvement of sanitation practices, especially in densely populated urban regions. Furthermore, the development of a predictive model using linear regression has enabled the anticipation of future cholera incidence in Abia State.
Keywords: Abia, Cholera, Epidemic Period, Nigeria, Outbreak
